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Nemůžu své komentáře upravit, tak jsem v zájmu přesnosti napíšu to, co jsem se dnes dočetl na wikipedi:

https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproduk%C4%8Dn%C3%AD_%C4%8D%C3%ADslo

celkový počet nakažených N, vyjadřuje funkce N=A*e^(KT) kde T je čas a K je číslo udávající rychlost růstu (pro jednoduchost se předpokládá, že je to kontanta) a A je integrační konstanta (která určuje počáteční podmínky). Reprodukční číslo R závisí na číslu K pomocí rovnice

R=1+(x+y)K+(K^2)*xy

kde x je čas kdy je jedinec nakažen, ale není infekční a y je čas, kdy je jedinec infekční a přenáší chorobu (a ještě není izolován). Mé úvahy dole (že počet nově nakažených roste jako R^(T/t)) asi nebyly špatné, ale byly příliš zjednodušující. Vaše "a" by zde bylo asi e^K.

Je zřejmé, že matematika za touto teorií není na úrovni 2. ročníku gymnázia (kdy se myslím exponenciální funkce učí). A že nejen ti politici, které kritizujete, ale i Vy (a samozřejmě i já) byste musel vynaloži určité úsilí, abyste tuto teorii úplně pochopil.

15.10.2020 02:10:32 | žába

Oprava: počet NOVĚ nakažených roste jako (R)^(T/t), počet celkově nakažených by mohl růst jako jako (1+R)^(T/t) ale to je určitě špatně, protože lidé po určité době (třeba právě po době t) přestávají být infekční (buď jsou v izolaci nebo v nemocnici a nebo se uzdravili). Abych to shrnul: plavu v tom, ale jediné číslo, které přímo souvisí s Vaším "a" je právě R.

Slibuji, že tímto tento rozhovor sám se sebou končím.

14.10.2020 20:33:06 | žába

Pane Klausi,

četl jsem dnes Váš komentář na Echo kde píšete:

Kolik je tedy to „a“? – to už nám pan premiér ani nikdo z těch, kdo používají obrat „exponenciální nárůst“ neřeknou. Místo toho používají jakési epidemiologické R (zatím jsem z novin nepochopil, jak se matematicky počítá a jaký má vztah k počtu nově nakažených, ani o jaký časový úsek se jedná „za jak dlouho nakažený jedinec nakazí další a kolik“. Nejsem si jist, že to chápou ostatní politici (já jsem přece jen vystudovaný matematik a autor několika učebnic), kteří o tom žvaní – každopádně bych rád (klidně tady do komentářů) poprosil o exaktní definici, pokud tedy jde o exaktní číslo.

Myslím, že to "a" je právě ono zmiňované R, tedy kolik lidí nakazí jeden člověk (v jakémsi průměru) za určitý časový úsek t, pak počet nakažených roste jako (R)^(T/t), kde T udává daný časový interval. Dále píšete, že R se mění a že je to důkaz, že to není exponenciální. To je pravda, v důsledku toho, že se mění okolnosti, se mění R. Pokud byste byl puntičkář, můžete výše uvedenou funkci napsat jako (R(x))^(T/t), kde R(x) vyjadřuje závislost R na dalších (nekontrolovatelných a nepředvídatelných) podmínkách x.

Považuji Vás za velice inteligentního člověka, ale věřte, že lidé, kteří se touto problematikou zabývají mají v dané oblasti MNOHEM větší matematický background než Vy nebo já. Také prohlášení, že jste "vystudovaný matematik" je hodně sebevědomé. Jedna věc je vystudovat matematiku pro střední školy a druhá věc je chápat do detailu Riemannovu hypotézu (to první zvládne hodně lidí, to druhé jenom pár a právě to jsou matematikové).

Omlouvám se, pokud jsem se Vás dotknul. Chtěl jsem to napsat na facebook, ale ten není anonymní... Tady to zase nikdo číst nebude, ale to je život. Zdravím.

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Prošel jsem si Vaše blogy a píšete opravdu velice vtipně a máte zajímavé nápady. Škoda, že už nepíšete. Jste mnohem sympatičtější než Váš tatínek :-).

Jablko: to je normální projev lásky k oboru, ve kterém je daný člověk dobrý a kterému se věnuje. Pro matematika je královnou věd matematika, pro fyzika je nejužitečnější fyzika a pro biologa samozřejmě biologie. V nějaké Sedláčkově knize jsem četl zmínku, že královnou věd je ekonomie, což mi přijde až trochu komediální. Z filosofického hlediska je nejuniverzálnější matematika, ale z hlediska užitečnosti to bude brzy asi biologie - je jenom otázkou času než se začne šlechtit IQ a nebo se vyvine umělá inteligence.

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 Vážený pane profesore,

úvodem bych Vám chtěl vyjádřit poklonu za Vaše články, které jsou mimořádně čtivé a patří společně s články pánů Navary a Sedláka k naprosté špičce českých šachových blogů.

Nicméně, chtěl bych prostřednictvím tohoto blogu napsat názor na Vaší novou knihu Matematika pro trojkaře. Nevím, jakou má funkční hodnotu - nemám s ní zkušenosti, ale věřím, že může pomoci. Každopádně ve škole nám četli kapitolu, která pojednává o tom, proč je matematika důležitá. Přijde mi, že tam užíváte holé demagogie. Sám mám, jako možná většina šachistů, matematiku rád, možná dokonce nejraději, ale nemohu s Vámi souhlasit, když de facto popíráte užitou hodnotu poznatků získaných z jiných předmětů.

S pozdravem student víceletého gymnázia v nejmenovaném okresním městě.

01.04.2014 01:53:16 | Proper

 od autora až nad lidský článek, je pěkné, že nad šachovnicí se potkává loser s elitáři, tak to má být všichni jsou si rovni. Osobně se považuji za první skupinu

20.12.2013 14:04:12 | slavekada

Václave, prosím napište něco. Je škoda, že jste se odmlčel. Do toho.!! Zdravím Vás.

12.08.2013 18:08:14 | ja

Prohraná partie zamrzí, ale vyhraná taky nepotěší, protože je mi líto soupeře, jeho smutku.

Takže šachy jedině přes internet (kde nemusím vidět soupeře) a taky proto, že o nic nejde, o nic se nehraje, třeba na stránkách www.kurnik.pl 

22.02.2013 22:02:28 | Alois

 Tvuj prastrejda byl esesman?

07.10.2012 21:31:15 | KhanKar

Nejhorší je prohrát vyhranou parii.Kolikrát člověk stojí jak čuně celou partii,nějakým zázrakem a se soupeřovou pomocí to nějak srovná,někdy i otočí a pak v rámci spravedlnosti soupeři výpomoc vrátí a prohraje.To je potom diskuze u piva.Rázem je zapomenuto x tahů,kdy jsem nehrál nic a člověk vidí jen tu nezaslouženou vyhranou pozici...............všichni to známe.........................výborný článek

10.07.2012 20:13:24 | Jirka Majer

Je to pro mě nesmrtelný článek, mohu ho číst dokola a stále se bavím!

19.06.2012 14:01:11 | Kuba

Po první přečtení, někdy před časem.. fakt dobrej článek. A teď při druhém? Záchvaty smíchu a naprosté vžití se. Zase něco napište!

PS: Snad mi tam úplně nesedí pojetí ELA - přeci jen, prohrát se soupeřem s ELO třeba o 150 vyšším mě (a asi ani Vás) nemrzí zase tolik, pokud partie není úplná sra*ka. Ale horší je to na druhou na druhou stranu - co když má soupeř elo stejné, nebo o 100, 200 nebo i 500 menší, to už se nevymluvíš.... 

29.04.2012 12:19:12 | luboš

Hej Václave...opravdu bych neřekl že se tak brilantně umíte nalejt do lidové šťávy blogu...Vaše šachové partie musí býti velice zajímavé. Kdepak bych je mohl potkat? Moc by mne zajímalo, zdali hrajete mariáš. Luboš Szmatana Velký Osek

27.04.2012 09:05:27 | Amberjack

Pěknej článek!

27.04.2012 08:25:49 | Lime

Hm, hned v první větě gramatická chyba jako bych dostal pár facek. Myslel jsme, že u Klausů si na takové věci potrpí...

25.04.2012 11:01:30 | slavekada

 ..........otec tří dětí --.A já dodávám - také recesista.Pěkný článek.

25.04.2012 09:48:42 | Bond(James)

Super!  

Pište častěji, asi tak obden

25.04.2012 09:02:09 | Inconnu

Pěkné téma. Šachy jsou holt egocentrické jako máloco. Velice mě fascinuje ten zcela neobjektivní pohled hráče na realitu při partii. Až se za sebe vždycky stydím, ale je to běžné skoro u všech.

24.04.2012 21:55:43 | Jirka Majer

Ano, je to tak, ale i ta euforie z vítězství je mnohonásobně větší, než jsem míval třeba z vyhraného zápasu v tenisu. A za družstvo se násobí. Pěkný článek.